Quite Bearish With PHISIX
Things are not getting good with PHISIX. First, a potential double top had already seen forming last December and was completed when the neckline at 2996 (which is a key support) broke last Jan 25. Second, all of my trend following indicators (EMA, ADX and MACD) already gave me a sell signal. Sooner or later, our index will be testing its support at 2860 but will it hold?
Obviously the price is headead south at this point. But far it could go I can't tell. If I'll only base it with my ADX. I can see here that the sellers (-DI) are dominant and the demand (+DI) is declining. Having an ADX reading of 24 as of today tells me that this trend is quite strong enough and has the potential to push the index down to a much lower level. My calculation here is between 2767 and 2860 when I've used pivot points on a monthly chart using January's data. However, my RSI tells me other possible scenarios:
1. PHISIX might found its support around 2800. For this past few days the RSI breaks down its support zone of 31 and eventually bounced back peaking at 38 then drops back again testing a new support at 30. Most of us here that an RSI of 30 denotes that it is already oversold. There are some that already attempts to bottom fish and thus PHISIX endeing in green last Friday means porift. However DOW closed at the red zone that night thus the behavior yesterday was due to DOW's closing at the red zone. Many sold their positions to secure their profits thus pushing back the RSI to its support zone. If DOW closed green today, then I would expect that many will bottom fish again immediately sell on a rally and the cycle repeats. This kind of cycle might continue and we could see that the RSI will only oscillate between 30-38 which is far from the transitional zone at 44-58 levels (basing on the RSI behavior from Feb-March 2009 before a new trend starts).
2. PHISIX may fail to hold the 2800 levels and thus sending the index to 2767 or lower. If the RSI's support zone at 30 breaks down and fails to climbs back then we will be seeing the RSI oscillate around 20-31 which is a bearish zone. This kind of RSI's behavior occured last Sept-Oct 2008 when PHISIX drops big time. So if this happens, we might see the PHISIX 2767 or below.
As for me, I'll be waiting for the RSI levels to have a strong support at 30 level before entering again the market. In any case that RSI breaks down its support zone of 30, I should expect an immediate bounce back otherwise PHISIX will experience a very bearish quarter.
Obviously the price is headead south at this point. But far it could go I can't tell. If I'll only base it with my ADX. I can see here that the sellers (-DI) are dominant and the demand (+DI) is declining. Having an ADX reading of 24 as of today tells me that this trend is quite strong enough and has the potential to push the index down to a much lower level. My calculation here is between 2767 and 2860 when I've used pivot points on a monthly chart using January's data. However, my RSI tells me other possible scenarios:
1. PHISIX might found its support around 2800. For this past few days the RSI breaks down its support zone of 31 and eventually bounced back peaking at 38 then drops back again testing a new support at 30. Most of us here that an RSI of 30 denotes that it is already oversold. There are some that already attempts to bottom fish and thus PHISIX endeing in green last Friday means porift. However DOW closed at the red zone that night thus the behavior yesterday was due to DOW's closing at the red zone. Many sold their positions to secure their profits thus pushing back the RSI to its support zone. If DOW closed green today, then I would expect that many will bottom fish again immediately sell on a rally and the cycle repeats. This kind of cycle might continue and we could see that the RSI will only oscillate between 30-38 which is far from the transitional zone at 44-58 levels (basing on the RSI behavior from Feb-March 2009 before a new trend starts).
2. PHISIX may fail to hold the 2800 levels and thus sending the index to 2767 or lower. If the RSI's support zone at 30 breaks down and fails to climbs back then we will be seeing the RSI oscillate around 20-31 which is a bearish zone. This kind of RSI's behavior occured last Sept-Oct 2008 when PHISIX drops big time. So if this happens, we might see the PHISIX 2767 or below.
As for me, I'll be waiting for the RSI levels to have a strong support at 30 level before entering again the market. In any case that RSI breaks down its support zone of 30, I should expect an immediate bounce back otherwise PHISIX will experience a very bearish quarter.
Posted by
Henry
at

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