Quite Bearish With PHISIX

Things are not getting good with PHISIX.  First, a potential double top had already seen forming last December and was completed when the neckline at 2996 (which is a key support) broke last Jan 25.  Second, all of my trend following indicators (EMA, ADX and MACD) already gave me a sell signal.  Sooner or later, our index will be testing its support at 2860 but will it hold?




Obviously the price is headead south at this point.  But far it could go I can't tell.  If I'll only base it with my ADX.  I can see here that the sellers (-DI) are dominant and the demand (+DI) is declining.  Having an ADX reading of 24 as of today tells me that this trend is quite strong enough and has the potential to push the index down to a much lower level.  My calculation here is between 2767 and 2860 when I've used pivot points on a monthly chart using January's data.  However, my RSI tells me other possible scenarios:

1. PHISIX might found its support around 2800.  For this past few days the RSI breaks down its support zone of 31 and eventually bounced back peaking at 38 then drops back again testing a new support at 30. Most of us here that an RSI of 30 denotes that it is already oversold.  There are some that already attempts to bottom fish and thus PHISIX endeing in green last Friday means porift.  However DOW closed at the red zone that night thus the behavior yesterday was due to DOW's closing at the red zone.  Many sold their positions to secure their profits thus pushing back the RSI to its support zone.  If DOW closed green today, then I would expect that many will bottom fish again immediately sell on a rally and the cycle repeats.  This kind of cycle might continue and we could see that the RSI will only oscillate between 30-38 which is far from the transitional zone at 44-58 levels (basing on the RSI behavior from Feb-March 2009 before a new trend starts).

2. PHISIX may fail to hold the 2800 levels and thus sending the index to 2767 or lower.  If the RSI's support zone at 30 breaks down and fails to climbs back then we will be seeing the RSI oscillate around 20-31 which is a bearish zone.  This kind of RSI's behavior occured last Sept-Oct 2008 when PHISIX drops big time.  So if this happens, we might see the PHISIX 2767 or below.

As for me, I'll be waiting for the RSI levels to have a strong support at 30 level before entering again the market.  In any case that RSI breaks down its support zone of 30, I should expect an immediate bounce back otherwise PHISIX will experience a very bearish quarter.

Bloodbath Again

As of posting time, DOW is yet again on the red zone.  Down by -23 points and I will expect that PHISIX will be overwhelmed by the bears tomorrow.  Is it time to bargain hunt?  Probably yes since PHISIX is almost on the oversold levels but I still won't go all-in.  Fear is still dominating the market so if there would be a rally, most traders will just take that opportunity to get out.  But for right now, I'll stay liquid and wait for a good timing to enter the market again.

First Post For The Year

I don't know if I'm just unlucky or what.  Last Monday, I've already sold some of my company's stock options since I'll be using its proceeds in adding some more funds on my stock trading.  At that time, the net proceeds was not subject to tax since I've already submitted W-8BEN form.  I was surprised last night that my net proceeds was deducted by 32% tax and I was told by our equities officer that indeed my proceeds was not subjected to U.S. taxation but it is still subjected by Philippines tax.  Ok I'll consider that, but our office here is categorized as ROHQ (Regional Operating Headquarters) so it is only subject to 15% tax.  Good thing that our new H.R. just joined VeriFone last December so I'm pretty sure she is already handling this.  Oh well I hope that this can be settled immediately as my proceeds was already wire transferred to my account.

Last Day for 2009

In 9 hours and we will gonna say goodbye to 2009.  I hope 2010 will be a good year for me  -- good health, good wealth -- good career.  Well I'm not saying that 2009 is a disaster for me.  This year was a complete staging area for me as I have experienced a lot of failures one of them is that all of the profit I hardly earned from stocks trading were completely wiped out -- at least my initial capital is still intact ;-).  Another thing is on the way how I do my presentation in front of a lot of people.  Frankly I have a stage fright and this is the area I want to completely remove.  I just need to practice more.  I do hope that this coming year will be a good start for me.

Got My Photo Selected

I did not expect that one of my snapshots during my U.S. visit was selected by Schmap.  Perhaps for others it's not a big deal and the photo is nothing special on it but for me it's an honor and I'm happy about it.  Here is the link where my photo was selected.

Hello PHISIX @ 3K

Our main index is up by 50.43 points breaking the resistance @ 2900 level where PHISIX consolidated last October.





I am much more convinced with this breakout compared yesterday.  First reason is the psychological level @ 3K was already reached backing up with a good amount of volume.  Thanks from the mining sector which is making new highs this past few days.  Second reason is it bounced back on our main trend line.  Frankly I am already very bearish from the moment this line was broke down last October 29 & was expecting that it will correct down to the 2700 level, but I was wrong.





Other reason why I am bullish now:

1. MACD is on positive territory.  Buy signal was triggered last November 10.
2. Price is above my moving averages (EMA).
3. Despite that ADX is still below the +DI and -DI, it is increasing with a significant amount indicating that a trend is underway.  You will also notice that the gap between +DI and -DI is widening in which the +DI is increasing indicating a strong demand.
4. RSI is on the bullish side and not yet overbought.

However, this still doesn't mean that it will shoot directly to the 3400 level.  I will be expecting some profit taking at the 3100-3200 level.

Watch out for the property and banking sector.  I will be expecting now a rotation on these two.  Reason is that investor will begin to take profits from the mining sector play and this will be used to fuel for the property and banking sector.  You will notice that both from ALI and MEG performance.

Caveat.

MEG 11/10/2009 Analysis

Right now I am very bearish with this stock.  First of all MACD give me a sell signal and was confirmed by my EMA and ADX.  This results that the mid-term channel broke down and fails to bounce back despite that the DOW is up for this past few days.  Currently MEG is trading between 1.50-1.54 and most probably it will be having  a sideways direction.  However watch carefully on the 1.48/1.42 support, once this was taken out we will be having a deep correction @ 1.22.  I will be bullish with this stock again once it bounce back inside the mid-term channel.  Long term TP is still @ 2.10 but for now, I'll avoid until it will give me clear signal to buy.