Sunday, June 21, 2009

Mid Year Trading Result

It's been a while since I posted in my blog. I was enjoying this bear market rally that started last April & ended last week. My portfolio went up by 20% within this period but last week it's only up by 4% due to some paper losses. I'm not sad because loosing is part of trading. Moreover, I have only 1 stock that I'm currently holding and I intend to hold some of my positions in this one for the next 2-5 years. What stock is this one might a ask. Simple answer: MegaWorld. I believe that this company has a good future so I want to hold it that long.

Anyhow, where is MEG heading right now. In it's daily chart, I have already signals that it's already down. ADX is declining as well as -DI is rising indicating there are a lot of sellers. Sooner or later it will start to test its short term support level @ 0.92. If the DOW will be down for consecutive days, it will also test its intermediate pivot line @ 0.89.

MEG Daily Chart

On the weekly chart, it had established a strong resistance @ 1.21. At this point, this stock might consolidate for the time being. Am I getting nervous? No -- as long as the intermediate pivot line @ 0.89 wont break. So what I'm gonna do with this stock. Below are the best option I have right now:
  1. For the positions I bought @ 1.18-1.20 it's best to hold this for a long period since this company has a bright future as long as this company is carefully managed.
  2. For the positions that I recently bought @ 1.04-1.06, I must dispose it immediately tomorrow @ 0.97-1.00. Much better if I can sell it @ 1.00 but I doubt that would be as the DOW closed @ -15.87 points.
  3. I will not touch the positions that I recently bought @ 1.00 & I intend to hold this for a couple of weeks. If there's a small rally and hits @ 1.08-1.10 I'll dispose it immediately.
  4. Plan to add some positions if this hits @ 0.90-0.95 level and the following conditions are met:
  • 4 Day EMA crosses above at 20 Day EMA
  • RSI is above 50 level
  • ADX is increasing at the same time +DI is also increasing
  • DJI support @ 8300-8500 respectively is strong
  • PHISIX support @ 2300-2400 is strong.

For now, I must do action item # 2 to minimize my risk.

0 comments: