PHISIX Feb 22-26 Outlook

Our index did quite a good job for the previous week but I am not quite convinced that the previous week rally is strong enough to push PHISIX to higher levels. My reason as follows:

1. Volume is relatively low. Our average volume for the past 20-days is only about 1.27 billion compared when our index reached its peak last January which has an average of 2 billion.

2. RSI found a resistance at 57. Our index past performance shows that every time the RSI level of 57 was touched, it has a tendency that it will go back and retest its RSI support at 44. Right now its RSI is poised to retest its support level of 44 in these coming days. If that support is strong enough then we will be seeing PHISIX to consolidate for a while.

I would expect that PHISIX will consolidate for a while this week.

Support: 2944
Resistance: 3017

ANI Feb 15-19 Outlook

Seems to be that ANI already found its support at 16.  Historically ANI's RSI oscillates between 29 and 39 before it went to a bullish transition.  If history repeats itself then we should be seeing its RSI level within this range for this week at least for the meantime before it goes back at its price level of 20-25.  Immediately cut loss if price breaks the 16 support as the next support will be at 15.25.  Immediate resistance will be at 18.25

PHISIX Feb 15-19 Outlook

Nice rebound for PHISIX this past 3 days after it had broke again its newly established long term upper trend line (solid blue line). Will this gonna be going back on the 3000 levels.  Possibly, but I will still not rule out yet that this might be another short term rally.  However I am much more biased on the upside compared with previous months due to the following:

PHISIX Daily Chart



PHISIX Oscillators



1.  Looking on the RSI, our index is already on the oversold levels starting last Jan 27 and is oscillating between 30-38.  Every time the RSI touches the 30 level, many are already buying in thinking that the market had already bottom out.  For every rally, RSI is peaking at 38 and those who bought will just immediately sell and the cycle repeats until the RSI retest its support of 30 but finally broke last Feb 9 resulting PHISIX to drop to 2767.

2.  That drop results to some small players loose their confidence with our market and just stayed in sidelines.  However big players and veteran investors understands well this kind of market psychology that's why they started to accumulate already after this drop thus pushing the RSI back again at its resistance level of 38 last Feb 10.  That resistance point was immediately taken out the following day.  Volume on Feb 12 is significantly high so possibly some small players began to accumulate resulting for PHISIX to gap up.

3.  Friday's gap up breaks out the short term down trend line (red line).

4.  MACD gave me a buy signal but I will not rule out that this might be a false signal.  I'll be waiting for my EMA to confirm this but at this point our index is already above my 4 EMA.

5.  Should our index corrects tomorrow due to DOW's red closing last Friday, possibly it will only just fill the gap that our index made last Friday.

6.  Its Chinese new year, investors who has a good feng shui might be started to jumping in as well ;-)

Support level to be watched out is 2839.  If that brokes out then my potential new long term trend will be no longer valid.  Immediate resistance will be at 3007.

Quite Bearish With PHISIX

Things are not getting good with PHISIX.  First, a potential double top had already seen forming last December and was completed when the neckline at 2996 (which is a key support) broke last Jan 25.  Second, all of my trend following indicators (EMA, ADX and MACD) already gave me a sell signal.  Sooner or later, our index will be testing its support at 2860 but will it hold?




Obviously the price is headead south at this point.  But far it could go I can't tell.  If I'll only base it with my ADX.  I can see here that the sellers (-DI) are dominant and the demand (+DI) is declining.  Having an ADX reading of 24 as of today tells me that this trend is quite strong enough and has the potential to push the index down to a much lower level.  My calculation here is between 2767 and 2860 when I've used pivot points on a monthly chart using January's data.  However, my RSI tells me other possible scenarios:

1. PHISIX might found its support around 2800.  For this past few days the RSI breaks down its support zone of 31 and eventually bounced back peaking at 38 then drops back again testing a new support at 30. Most of us here that an RSI of 30 denotes that it is already oversold.  There are some that already attempts to bottom fish and thus PHISIX endeing in green last Friday means porift.  However DOW closed at the red zone that night thus the behavior yesterday was due to DOW's closing at the red zone.  Many sold their positions to secure their profits thus pushing back the RSI to its support zone.  If DOW closed green today, then I would expect that many will bottom fish again immediately sell on a rally and the cycle repeats.  This kind of cycle might continue and we could see that the RSI will only oscillate between 30-38 which is far from the transitional zone at 44-58 levels (basing on the RSI behavior from Feb-March 2009 before a new trend starts).

2. PHISIX may fail to hold the 2800 levels and thus sending the index to 2767 or lower.  If the RSI's support zone at 30 breaks down and fails to climbs back then we will be seeing the RSI oscillate around 20-31 which is a bearish zone.  This kind of RSI's behavior occured last Sept-Oct 2008 when PHISIX drops big time.  So if this happens, we might see the PHISIX 2767 or below.

As for me, I'll be waiting for the RSI levels to have a strong support at 30 level before entering again the market.  In any case that RSI breaks down its support zone of 30, I should expect an immediate bounce back otherwise PHISIX will experience a very bearish quarter.