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PHISIX March 8-12 Outlook

2010-03-08T01:03:00.002+08:00

PHISIX had another good performance for this previous week but I'm still not yet ruling out that this might be only a short term rally. I will only be convinced that our index will push itself to higher levels only if the 3100 resistance will be taken out. Remember that this is the level that PHISIX reached its peak from its 10-month long rally. I would expect that this resistance line might be tested sometime this week or next week and in any case that this fails, we might see a sideways movement. I'll remain bullish or should I say, I'll go all-in as long as:

1. Index remains above 60-day EMA. All of my moving averages are on bullish alignment and MACD is already on the positive zone, but still lacks of volume. Better wait for a significant volume increase.

2. Fast volume EMA is poised to cross with my slow volume EMA. Should this happens, we might be seeing a significant increase in volume for this coming weeks.

3. RSI should oscillate between 58-75. From past performance, a good buying setup is if the 58 level became a support for the RSI. During a bull run on PHISIX, RSI is playing around 66-75.

4. DOW is already above the psychological level of 10500. This will be a good news with PHISIX if DOW continuously rises above this level.

PHISIX Feb 22-26 Outlook

2010-02-22T01:27:00.001+08:00

Our index did quite a good job for the previous week but I am not quite convinced that the previous week rally is strong enough to push PHISIX to higher levels. My reason as follows:

1. Volume is relatively low. Our average volume for the past 20-days is only about 1.27 billion compared when our index reached its peak last January which has an average of 2 billion.

2. RSI found a resistance at 57. Our index past performance shows that every time the RSI level of 57 was touched, it has a tendency that it will go back and retest its RSI support at 44. Right now its RSI is poised to retest its support level of 44 in these coming days. If that support is strong enough then we will be seeing PHISIX to consolidate for a while.

I would expect that PHISIX will consolidate for a while this week.

Support: 2944
Resistance: 3017

ANI Feb 15-19 Outlook

2010-02-14T23:19:00.002+08:00

Seems to be that ANI already found its support at 16. Historically ANI's RSI oscillates between 29 and 39 before it went to a bullish transition. If history repeats itself then we should be seeing its RSI level within this range for this week at least for the meantime before it goes back at its price level of 20-25. Immediately cut loss if price breaks the 16 support as the next support will be at 15.25. Immediate resistance will be at 18.25

PHISIX Feb 15-19 Outlook

2010-02-14T22:34:00.003+08:00

Nice rebound for PHISIX this past 3 days after it had broke again its newly established long term upper trend line (solid blue line). Will this gonna be going back on the 3000 levels. Possibly, but I will still not rule out yet that this might be another short term rally. However I am much more biased on the upside compared with previous months due to the following:

PHISIX Daily Chart

PHISIX Oscillators

1. Looking on the RSI, our index is already on the oversold levels starting last Jan 27 and is oscillating between 30-38. Every time the RSI touches the 30 level, many are already buying in thinking that the market had already bottom out. For every rally, RSI is peaking at 38 and those who bought will just immediately sell and the cycle repeats until the RSI retest its support of 30 but finally broke last Feb 9 resulting PHISIX to drop to 2767.

2. That drop results to some small players loose their confidence with our market and just stayed in sidelines. However big players and veteran investors understands well this kind of market psychology that's why they started to accumulate already after this drop thus pushing the RSI back again at its resistance level of 38 last Feb 10. That resistance point was immediately taken out the following day. Volume on Feb 12 is significantly high so possibly some small players began to accumulate resulting for PHISIX to gap up.

3. Friday's gap up breaks out the short term down trend line (red line).

4. MACD gave me a buy signal but I will not rule out that this might be a false signal. I'll be waiting for my EMA to confirm this but at this point our index is already above my 4 EMA.

5. Should our index corrects tomorrow due to DOW's red closing last Friday, possibly it will only just fill the gap that our index made last Friday.

6. Its Chinese new year, investors who has a good feng shui might be started to jumping in as well ;-)

Support level to be watched out is 2839. If that brokes out then my potential new long term trend will be no longer valid. Immediate resistance will be at 3007.

Quite Bearish With PHISIX

2010-02-02T02:19:00.000+08:00

Things are not getting good with PHISIX. First, a potential double top had already seen forming last December and was completed when the neckline at 2996 (which is a key support) broke last Jan 25. Second, all of my trend following indicators (EMA, ADX and MACD) already gave me a sell signal. Sooner or later, our index will be testing its support at 2860 but will it hold?

Obviously the price is headead south at this point. But far it could go I can't tell. If I'll only base it with my ADX. I can see here that the sellers (-DI) are dominant and the demand (+DI) is declining. Having an ADX reading of 24 as of today tells me that this trend is quite strong enough and has the potential to push the index down to a much lower level. My calculation here is between 2767 and 2860 when I've used pivot points on a monthly chart using January's data. However, my RSI tells me other possible scenarios:

1. PHISIX might found its support around 2800. For this past few days the RSI breaks down its support zone of 31 and eventually bounced back peaking at 38 then drops back again testing a new support at 30. Most of us here that an RSI of 30 denotes that it is already oversold. There are some that already attempts to bottom fish and thus PHISIX endeing in green last Friday means porift. However DOW closed at the red zone that night thus the behavior yesterday was due to DOW's closing at the red zone. Many sold their positions to secure their profits thus pushing back the RSI to its support zone. If DOW closed green today, then I would expect that many will bottom fish again immediately sell on a rally and the cycle repeats. This kind of cycle might continue and we could see that the RSI will only oscillate between 30-38 which is far from the transitional zone at 44-58 levels (basing on the RSI behavior from Feb-March 2009 before a new trend starts).

2. PHISIX may fail to hold the 2800 levels and thus sending the index to 2767 or lower. If the RSI's support zone at 30 breaks down and fails to climbs back then we will be seeing the RSI oscillate around 20-31 which is a bearish zone. This kind of RSI's behavior occured last Sept-Oct 2008 when PHISIX drops big time. So if this happens, we might see the PHISIX 2767 or below.

As for me, I'll be waiting for the RSI levels to have a strong support at 30 level before entering again the market. In any case that RSI breaks down its support zone of 30, I should expect an immediate bounce back otherwise PHISIX will experience a very bearish quarter.

Bloodbath Again

2010-01-28T00:34:00.000+08:00

As of posting time, DOW is yet again on the red zone. Down by -23 points and I will expect that PHISIX will be overwhelmed by the bears tomorrow. Is it time to bargain hunt? Probably yes since PHISIX is almost on the oversold levels but I still won't go all-in. Fear is still dominating the market so if there would be a rally, most traders will just take that opportunity to get out. But for right now, I'll stay liquid and wait for a good timing to enter the market again.

First Post For The Year

2010-01-07T22:45:00.000+08:00

I don't know if I'm just unlucky or what. Last Monday, I've already sold some of my company's stock options since I'll be using its proceeds in adding some more funds on my stock trading. At that time, the net proceeds was not subject to tax since I've already submitted W-8BEN form. I was surprised last night that my net proceeds was deducted by 32% tax and I was told by our equities officer that indeed my proceeds was not subjected to U.S. taxation but it is still subjected by Philippines tax. Ok I'll consider that, but our office here is categorized as ROHQ (Regional Operating Headquarters) so it is only subject to 15% tax. Good thing that our new H.R. just joined VeriFone last December so I'm pretty sure she is already handling this. Oh well I hope that this can be settled immediately as my proceeds was already wire transferred to my account.

Last Day for 2009

2009-12-31T15:19:00.000+08:00

In 9 hours and we will gonna say goodbye to 2009. I hope 2010 will be a good year for me -- good health, good wealth -- good career. Well I'm not saying that 2009 is a disaster for me. This year was a complete staging area for me as I have experienced a lot of failures one of them is that all of the profit I hardly earned from stocks trading were completely wiped out -- at least my initial capital is still intact ;-). Another thing is on the way how I do my presentation in front of a lot of people. Frankly I have a stage fright and this is the area I want to completely remove. I just need to practice more. I do hope that this coming year will be a good start for me.

Got My Photo Selected

2009-12-11T21:16:00.000+08:00

I did not expect that one of my snapshots during my U.S. visit was selected by Schmap. Perhaps for others it's not a big deal and the photo is nothing special on it but for me it's an honor and I'm happy about it. Here is the link where my photo was selected.

Hello PHISIX @ 3K

2009-11-12T00:35:00.009+08:00

Our main index is up by 50.43 points breaking the resistance @ 2900 level where PHISIX consolidated last October.

I am much more convinced with this breakout compared yesterday. First reason is the psychological level @ 3K was already reached backing up with a good amount of volume. Thanks from the mining sector which is making new highs this past few days. Second reason is it bounced back on our main trend line. Frankly I am already very bearish from the moment this line was broke down last October 29 & was expecting that it will correct down to the 2700 level, but I was wrong.

Other reason why I am bullish now:

MACD is on positive territory. Buy signal was triggered last November 10.
Price is above my moving averages (EMA).
Despite that ADX is still below the +DI and -DI, it is increasing with a significant amount indicating that a trend is underway. You will also notice that the gap between +DI and -DI is widening in which the +DI is increasing indicating a strong demand.
RSI is on the bullish side and not yet overbought.

However, this still doesn't mean that it will shoot directly to the 3400 level. I will be expecting some profit taking at the 3100-3200 level.

Watch out for the property and banking sector. I will be expecting now a rotation on these two. Reason is that investor will begin to take profits from the mining sector play and this will be used to fuel for the property and banking sector. You will notice that both from ALI and MEG performance.

Caveat.

MEG 11/10/2009 Analysis

2009-11-10T10:13:00.001+08:00

Right now I am very bearish with this stock. First of all MACD give me a sell signal and was confirmed by my EMA and ADX. This results that the mid-term channel broke down and fails to bounce back despite that the DOW is up for this past few days. Currently MEG is trading between 1.50-1.54 and most probably it will be having a sideways direction. However watch carefully on the 1.48/1.42 support, once this was taken out we will be having a deep correction @ 1.22. I will be bullish with this stock again once it bounce back inside the mid-term channel. Long term TP is still @ 2.10 but for now, I'll avoid until it will give me clear signal to buy.

Quite Nervous With PRIM

2009-10-28T00:08:00.000+08:00

Right now, I'm quite nervous on a speculative stock I've purchased today -- PRIM. I know that there will be gonna a play in here because of PLDT's acquisition on ABC 5. In fact it did. From a closing price of 0.79 centavos last October 21, rosed up to 3 pesos as of today's closing price. I know I am already too late if I've entered the trade considering that the stock climbs upto that price rapidly but yet I still entered. The good thing is I only bought half of the position size I've calculated. The bad thing is I've entered a trade that is against my trading plan. Whatever happens, if this stock opens below 3.00, I'll sell it immediately.

Stock Trading Pointers Update

2009-10-09T08:57:00.002+08:00

How could I miss this very important reminder on my stock trading pointers post. This should be emphasized on pointer #8 but I think this should be the #1 rule:

You should always protect your capital and whatever gains that you have by having a good exit point or a protective stop (stop loss). Know when to take loss or take profits. Put away that #1 and the most serious sin: PRIDE as this applies to all things even in the stock market.

Happy trading :-)

MEG Breakout

2009-10-06T22:08:00.000+08:00

Finally after consolidating for a month, MEG had already breaks out.

From the chart above, we can see that the symmetrical triangle pattern had broken and the price had ended up with a long white candle plus I also saw that the foreigns began accumulating this stock so there's something is going on as also indicated by the size of the volume. If the DOW ended up 3 digits at the upside, that 1.63 barrier will be easily breached and price will be headed at its next resistance of 1.7.

Back In Manila

2009-10-03T21:34:00.003+08:00

Finally I arrived at home. I missed my bed hehehe. Good thing that my flight headed straight to Manila and no longer went to Guam. Although there is still delay (typical of PAL as what my father says) at least I arrived here safe and sound

@SFO International Airport

2009-10-01T08:37:00.006+08:00

PAL will open at 6PM SFO time & my departure time is still at 10pm. So what I am doing right now to kill time. Download!!!!

Typhoon "Ondoy"

2009-10-01T02:57:00.004+08:00

It is so depressing when I see pictures of the flooded areas caused by typhoon "Ondoy" (International name Ketsana). Currently I am still in the U.S waiting for my plane. It was a little bit late when I've heard the news, but after hearing it I immediately called my family and fiance back at home. Good thing that my family is ok. However my fiance was stranded on the church nearby in her house since it is heavily flooded :-(. I'm still glad that she and her family are safe.

I feel guilty thou that I am here having a training for the week and went to visit San Francisco and some other places having, fun during weekends while my home town is flooded.

Frankly, it is my first time to go abroad and upon hearing this news from your home is depressing. I am at the other edge of the world and too far away to help them whcih makes me think that I want to go home immediately.

Anyhow, I'll be going home now to see that everyone is ok and help others.

BTW, for those who want to donate to Red Cross please refer to this link

Philippine National Red Cross -- Typhoon Ondoy

@Sacramento

2009-09-23T22:07:00.002+08:00

Finally I'm here in the U.S. :). Although it's only for a 2 weeks training, I can finally say "hey I've made to the U.S." hehehe. Will post some pictures but for now I've got to prepare myself. Back in Manila, I usually go to the office at around 10am, but here we go around 8am and I haven't get some proper sleep yet since I've arrived here last Sunday. Oh well, off for now.

Stocks: VeriFone Incorporated (PAY)

2009-09-08T22:13:00.003+08:00

This is my first time to analyze my company's stock price movement. Below is a chart showing its price action a year ago.

I'll be analyzing here the possible long term target price for this stock. My target price for this stock within this year is at $19.95 as this was the important short-term support for August-September last year before it declined towards the $2.27 level.

There are some significant indications that its uptrend most likely to continue. First one is the ADX which is strongly increasing as well as its +DI which is above the -DI indicating that there's a strong demand on this stock. Second is that the price is already above all of the EMA (4-days, 9-days, 20-days and 200-days) and are pointing upward. Third, MACD is on the positive territory and is trending up and goes along with the price movement.

However, RSI already reached 76.67 indicating that this stock is already overbought. I would expect that this price will correct anytime soon before it continues to trend up. If this stock corrects down, it will touch its 50% fibonacci retracement at $11.77. I will still consider this as a healthy correction as long as this level holds as it needs to form a solid base on that level before it continues to trend up.

If in any case that my forecast is wrong, the deepest level that this stock could correct is its 38.2% fibonacci retracement which is $9.53. But for me it is already a warning level for a possible reversal. On the bright side, I don't see any indication that this stock will touch that level. Monthly pivot point (not shown in the chart) is around $10.66 so whenever the stock touches this level chance is that it will just bounce back and range trade at that price.

This are only my personal assumptions for this stock performance so trade at your own risk.

Mikey Arroyo's Unexplained Wealth

2009-09-03T11:56:00.004+08:00

This is my first time to post in my blog regarding politics. Look on how Mikey defends himself regarding his unexplained wealth. Watching the video, it's just full of lies.

Mikey Arroyo On Media Suicide With Igan & Winnie Monsod - How Do You Earn Millions? Part 1

Mikey Arroyo On Media Suicide With Igan & Winnie Monsod - How Do You Earn Millions? Part 2

Here's an article regarding the said video:

MANILA, Philippines—Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo may have found himself in deeper trouble following an early morning TV interview about his ballooning net worth and P63.7-million beachfront property in the United States.

Clips of his Tuesday interview with GMA 7’s “Unang Hirit” were uploaded to the video-sharing website YouTube, triggering nasty comments—many of them apparently not fit for newspaper publication—from angry Web users.

One viewer described the lawmaker as “the world’s dum... criminal.”

“(Mikey) sucks at defending himself. If he is in court, he’ll be (cited) for contempt for utter stu...,” another commented.

Another viewer said Mikey “hanged himself on national TV” with the way he explained how his net worth jumped from P5 million in his statement of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN) in 2002 to P99 million last year.

“Take note of (his) facial expressions and the tone of his voice. Talagang sinu. . . (He’s really a li...),” one viewer said.

“Another stu... son of a corrupt politician. This is exactly what happens when you have a big f_ _ _ing ego to go on air to show everyone how much assets you try to hide,” said another. “Mikey, isa kang ... (you’re st...)!”

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita Wednesday said the Palace was confident that the eldest son of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, herself under scrutiny for her growing wealth while in office, could answer the issue “adequately to the satisfaction of everybody.”

How to earn millions

But Web users were not satisfied with his explanation when they saw the two-part video clip, titled “Mikey Arroyo on Media Suicide with Igan & Winnie Monsod—How Do You Earn Millions?”

The clips were viewed 8,888 times as of Wednesday afternoon and solicited a total of 258 comments.

In the interview, broadcaster and economist Winnie Monsod, armed with copies of Mikey’s SALNs, confronted the congressman on how he accumulated all his wealth given his salary as a government employee.

YouTube viewers noticed how the lawmaker repeatedly tried to “dodge” the question only to be cornered by Monsod each time.

Gifts, campaign contributions

Finally in the second clip, a seemingly exasperated Mikey said: “Let’s put it this way. Alam nyo kasi, syempre unang-una, kinasal tayo. Medyo nagkaroon tayo ng maraming regalo. Tapos pag kampanya, eh syempre, kahit paano, maraming tumutulong sa atin (You know, first of all, I got married. I received lots of gifts. Then in the election campaign, somehow, many people helped me).”

Mikey, a Pampanga representative since 2004, said this was how his net worth increased from P76.9 million in 2005 to P99 million in 2008.

He said his P5-million net worth in his 2002 SALN was inaccurate and had been corrected the following year.

“So is it legal to pocket the money intended as campaign donation? Magna...!” commented one Web user.

Earlier in the interview, Mikey acknowledged that he owned the property at 1655 Beach Park Boulevard in Foster City, San Mateo County, in the San Francisco bay area in California.

Limited liability company

Mikey said it was owned by a company called Beach Way Park LLC (limited liability company) of which he and his family owned some 40 percent in shares.

In the United States, LLCs are small businesses similar to single proprietorships in the Philippines. They can be set up with just one person as shareholder.

Mikey refused to identify the other shareholders in the company even to dispel speculations that they were merely acting as “dummies.”

“Stop saying it’s my house. It’s a house owned by Beach Way which I’m a shareholder of,” the lawmaker, appearing incensed and uneasy, told Monsod and co-anchor Arnold Clavio.

Burden of proof on Mikey

“You know what, the law is very clear,” Monsod told Mikey. “If there is a problem, when there is a question of unexplained wealth here, the burden of proof is with you, with the government employee.”

Monsod added: “It can’t be that (we) have to prove that (you) are guilty. No, the government employee should prove that he is innocent. That’s precisely the whole objective of having a statement of assets and liabilities.”

Mikey’s appearance on the TV show stemmed from a report of Vera Files, a group of investigative reporters, that the eldest son of the President did not report in his SALN for the last two years the $1.32-million (P63.7-million) house in Foster City that he bought and transferred to his wife Angela in 2006. They got married in 2002.

Vera Files also reported that Mikey’s brother, Camarines Sur Rep. Diosdado Ignacio “Dato” Arroyo, also acquired a house in the United States after he won a seat in Congress in 2007.

But unlike Mikey, Dato declared ownership of a 70-square-meter unit at the luxury full-service Gramercy Towers in San Francisco in his SALN for 2008. Dato and his wife, Victoria Celina Manotok, bought the property for P26.7 million.

Mikey said Tuesday that his family could afford to buy real estate in the United States.

Source: Mikey Arroyo Under Fire On YouTube

I really love how Winnie Monsod scrutinize Mikey. I'll quote again what she says:

It can’t be that (we) have to prove that (you) are guilty. No, the government employee should prove that he is innocent. That’s precisely the whole objective of having a statement of assets and liabilities.

Very very true. In fact, Mikey said that his 2002 SALN (Statement of Assents and Liabilities) were inaccurate and he also mentioned that he dosen't know how to file SALN during that time. Nice one Mikey but it's very very stupid. You can't fool me that you don't know. At that time, your mother was a senator why not seek for her help regarding this.

Restricting 15% Preferential Tax Rate for ROHQ Employees

2009-08-26T13:05:00.003+08:00

This news was sent by a colleague. Unfortunately its not a good news.

While an ordinary Filipino employee’s withholding-tax rate can go as high as 32 percent, some employees of the Regional Operating Headquarters (ROHQ) are entitled to a 15-percent preferential-tax rate under the Tax Code.

In several rulings, the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) has confirmed that to qualify for the 15-percent preferential-tax rate, an ROHQ employee should hold a managerial and/or a technical position. In Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) No. 41-2009, the BIR not only defined a managerial and a technical position, but also clarified whether or not an employee should be holding a managerial and technical position or whether it is enough that an employee is holding a position that is either managerial or technical to qualify for the 15-percent preferential-tax rate. The BIR made these clarifications by revoking a ruling it issued in 2004 (BIR Ruling DA -61-04, Cypress Semiconductor Philippine Headquarters, Ltd.) where employees who hold positions as tax or a data analysts were declared as not qualified to avail themselves of the 15-percent preferential-tax rate.

In the RMC, the BIR defines a managerial employee by citing Philippines Alliance Corp. v. Laguesma, 226 SCRA 730, where the Supreme Court held that a managerial employee is one who is vested with powers or prerogatives to lay down and execute management policies and/or to hire, transfer, suspend, lay-off, recall, discharge, assign or discipline employees. The test of managerial status depends on whether a person possesses authority to act in the interest of his employer and whether such authority is not merely routine or clerical in nature, but requires the use of independent management. Where such recommendatory powers are subject to evaluation, review and final action by the department heads and other higher executives of the company, the person having such recommendatory powers is not a managerial employee. The fact that his work description is either manager or supervisor is of no moment considering that it is the nature of his functions and not the nomenclature of title which determines his status.

On the other hand, a technical position is limited to positions which are highly technical in nature or where there are no Filipinos who are competent, able and willing to perform the services for which the aliens are desired. By adding the descriptive word highly, the BIR has set another standard which unfortunately they failed to squarely define in the RMC. Utilizing the intricacies of the features of Microsoft Excel may be highly technical for an ordinary person but not to a certified public accountant. In other words, what is highly technical is very subjective such that the parameters thereof should be clearly established. Since the BIR revoked its ruling on Cypress, employees of an ROHQ who do the work of a tax and data analyst, by definition, are not highly technical employees who can enjoy the preferential-tax rate of 15 percent. Consequently, similar employees of ROHQs who do the same work and who currently enjoy the preferential rate should expect to receive 17 percent less on their net pay.

Another issue that is addressed by the RMC is whether or not an employee should be holding a managerial and highly technical position or whether it is enough that an employee is holding a position that is either managerial or highly technical, to qualify for the 15-percent preferential-tax rate. The RMC clarified that an employee should be both holding a position that is managerial and technical to enjoy the preferential rate. Thus, an employee who is holding a technical position but is not performing managerial functions is not qualified to avail himself/herself of the preferential-tax rate. This twin requirement has far reaching implications since this would affect salaries of employees who are currently enjoying the preferential rate. ROHQs should be wary of possible tax assessments by the BIR if they will continue to give the preferential rates to their employees who are only holding either managerial or technical positions.

An RMC is meant to clarify laws for better enforcement and tax collection. Unfortunately, RMC 41-2009 only clarified the obvious, i.e. the tests of what a managerial employee is gave birth to the term “highly technical employees” in the process. It is a new species that would invite subjective interpretations.

More important, many employees of an ROHQ are at risk to be burdened by a maximum deduction of 32 percent from their net pay. The impending additional tax deductions of these people whose earnings are hard earned should be avoided. The BIR should find other sources of revenue that will not directly share in the pie of a common Filipino worker.

Here is I don't understand why BIR would implement such ruling if not for their own selfish purposes. There are only limited ROHQ offices here in the Philippines and each of this companies has only 5-10 who holds both managerial and technical positions. One more thing, this type of employees has already high salary so what's the reason why they need to shield them. Compare it to the number who only holds technical positions (Software Engineers / Software Engineer Leads, QA Engineers and the list goes on from other technical-related industries)

Source: Restricting 15% Preferential Tax Rate for ROHQ Employees

Trade for the week of August 17-21

2009-08-16T21:41:00.003+08:00

DOW closed -76.79 pts last Friday so I will expect that P6 is also down tomorrow. Positions in play tomorrow:

FLI

Using Friday's data, below are the calculated support and pivot point:

S1: 0.94
S2: 0.93
S3: 0.91
PP: 0.95

Probably will open at its S2 and re-test its S3 tomorrow. Quite laggard. I'll already sell all of my positions with FLI.

MEG

Using Friday's data below are the calculated support and pivot point:

S1: 1.36
S2: 1.34
S3: 1.30
PP: 1.38

Probably will open at its S1 and re-test its S2 tomorrow. Cut @ 1.30. I'm gonna leave my position with this one untouched.

MPI

MPI's chart is quite attractive. I'll use my proceeds from FLI to buy this stock. Using Friday's data, below are the calculated support and resistance:

S1: 6.33
S2: 6.07
S3: 5.67
R1: 6.73
R2: 6.87
R3: 7.27
PP: 6.47

My buying price should be near the pivot point of 6.47 and should not close enought with R1. Ideal buy price is within the S2 and PP lines.

8/17 Update:

I've already sold all my remaining FLI @ 0.92 as it already broken its S2. Good thing because FLI closed @ 0.89 so I've managed to salvage some of my profits with this stock.
Using the proceeds from FLI, I bought MPI @ 6.40 and 6.50. Bad thing is that it already touched my cut loss @ 6.00 and as of this time of writing, DOW is down by -188 pts. I'm dead :(. Sell this stock whenever it touches 6.00.
Sold all my MEG to protect my profit @ 1.30. But I've bought it back half of it @ 1.30. Today, MEG closed @ 1.28 and it's only 2 fluctuations away before it tocuhes it's monthly pivot point @ 1.25. DOW is down by 3 digits so more or less P6 is red flag. MEG might test @ 1.25 level but I hope it stays above that line or else I'll be taking a loss again for the positions I've bot @ 1.30.
I'm not 100% liquid and I'm afraid that tomorrow will not just be a big correction but theres a 95% chance that the trend is already heading down.
NO BUYING OF ANY STOCK TOMORROW. I'll wait until prices become stable again.

Trade for the week of August 10-14

2009-08-12T07:57:00.003+08:00

DOW is down by 3 consecutive days and I don't think that P6 will not rally today. Probably it might trade between its S1 and PP. P6 daily support and resistance:

S1: 2853.44
S2: 2846.35
PP: 2863.49
R1: 2870.58
R2: 2880.63

Currently holding MEG and FLI but I will put my attention with my MEG right now. Yesterday's close was 1.36 but with a red DOW, it might go down at 1.34 which eventually breaks down my trailing stop @ 1.35. Below is MEG's daily support and resistance:

S1: 1.33
S2: 1.31
PP: 1.37
R1: 1.39

My strategy would be:

Whenever MEG breaks my trail stop @ 1.35, sell it as much as possible @ 1.34. 1.30 is satisfactory but ideal selling price must be @ 1.34.
Buy back price must be @ 1.32, 1.33, 1.34. (40K @ 1.32, 2K @ 1.33, 1K @ 1.34)

8/14 Update:

I failed to follow the above trading strategy last Wednesday. I've posted to sell MEG @ 1.34 when it was trading at that price but eventually it won't hit since there's no buyer. Bid price was @ 1.32 so I have no choice but to sell it at that price in order to protect my gains since it already breaks down my trail stop. Now when I am buying it back again @ 1.32, MEG is already trading @ 1.34 so I have to buy it much higher. Things are really different when its real-time.
The good thing here is that I didn't sold it @ 1.30 and it closes @ 1.34 so I'm still bullish with it.
DOW closed at 36.58 pts. I'll assume that P6 will retest the 2900 resistance level. I hope that it will close at that level to have a happy week ending. What will I do with my current positions? Nothing, just hold hehe ;-)

Trade for the week of August 3-7

2009-08-04T09:20:00.005+08:00

Sold my FLI for a 20% gain. Average cost is 0.82 but I've decided to buy it back at 1.02 and 1.00. I plan to hold this for a couple of weeks upto a month. Target price is now set at 1.2-1.4
Good closing for MEG @ 1.44. With the DOW up by 100pts, 1.5 is an easy target. Moving my protective stop @ 1.35. Sell half of my shares in any case that happens. Holding period is couple of weeks upto a month. Short term target is @ 1.7. Medium term target is @ 2.21 whenever the 1.5-1.7 range has broken out.

8/5 Update:

As of this time of writing, DOW is down by -101.95 pts. I would assume that FLI will be trading between 0.95-0.98. In any case 0.95 breaks down, I'll sell half of my current FLI positions @ 0.93-0.94 as much as possible.
FLI's S1 and S2 is @ 0.96 and 0.94 respectively. Whenever my cut loss @ 0.95 breaks down, sell half of it then buy it back again @ 0.94.
Leave this stock untouch if the 0.95 cut loss doesn't breaks down or if the DOW ends with a green.
Whether the DOW ends up red or green, leave MEG untouched

8/6 Update:

DOW closed down at -39.22 pts. P6 may correct today and probably my positions in MEG & FLI will got affected. MEG might break down my cut loss @ 1.35 so probably I'm gonna sell half of my shares @ 1.34-1.35 as much as possible. If the 1.32 support holds 30 mins before the market closes, I'll buy back it again less 1,000 shares. Buy back price MUST be at 1.33-1.34 which is above the daily support line. This daily support line is the same as its weekly pivot line, whenever this breaks down refrain from buying this stock today.

Some Usefull Links For Strobing

2009-07-26T23:10:00.005+08:00

Ever since I've first tried to use a strobe, I've began reading some topics about strobing. I'll be posting here some of usefull links with regards to this subject:

Strobist Blog
Guide To Canon Speedlites
Flash Photography with Canon EOS Cameras
David Lee Tong's Flash Photography Topics
Discussion about setting the popup flash to manual on EOS 300D/400D. Based on the discussion it's impossible but I'll just post it in here.
Discussion about setting the 430Ex as a slave for the pop-up flash on EOS 300D/400D. This is not possible but I'll post it in here for reference.
430Ex as Optical Slave... Possible??? This is not possible but I'll post it in here for reference.
One-Light Portraits by Snapify

Right now, I'm still have the dilemma what flash gun should I buy whether the 430-EX II or the 580-EX II.